Measuring papal popularity

Attendance at papal audiences is on the rise again

The Vatican is once again publishing statistics for attendance at the Pope’s public appearances— perhaps because those numbers are trending in the right direction.

After the phenomenally popular pontificate of St. John Paul II, attendance at papal audiences (and other public events) slumped during the quieter years of Pope Benedict XVI. During his first year on Peter’s Throne, Benedict drew a total attendance of just over 4 million, but that figure slipped to 3.2 million the next year, then settled in the range of about 2.5 million in subsequent years.

Pope Francis started out strong, drawing well over 6 million people during the first full year of his pontificate. But as the initial excitement and curiosity wore off, the number dropped: to 3.2 million in 2015, 2.7 million in 2017, and then— as reporters began remarking on the number of empty seats at Wednesday audiences— the Vatican stopped publishing statistics. The best available estimates (which are very rough) put the figures under 2 million for 2023 and 2024.

But this week the pontifical household furnished the numbers for 2025, showing that over 3 million people saw the Pope during the year. Since Pope Francis’ final illness cut down his public appearances during the first few months of the year, and Pope Leo made his first appearances in May, that attendance figure represents a significant jump.

No doubt the curiosity factor has been in play again, in the first months of a new papacy. But attendance at papal audiences has remained robust as winter has arrived in Rome. No one would suggest that Pope Leo shows the same crowd-drawing charisma as John Paul II, or the headline-generating iconoclasm of Francis. His demeanor is modest and mild; his actions and public statements have been balanced and reassuring. So something else must be at work here: something beyond personal popularity.

My hypothesis: The world— especially, but not exclusively, the Catholic world— has a strong sense that important changes are coming at the Vatican. That with a new hand on the helm— and protestations to the contrary notwithstanding— the Barque of Peter is quietly shifting course. And we’re all anxious to see which way she’s headed.